URL Shorteners: Bit.ly, Goo.gl, Shr.ty

I'm not a huge fan of URL shorteners. Quite honestly, I don't trust them. I like to see exactly where someone is trying to send me, and I can often sniff out a spammy link just by looking at the URL. There was a time when I refused to click on a TinyURL link. But with the rise of Twitter and 140 character limits I've been forced to change my habits as shortened links are pretty much unavoidable these days.

For most of the year URL shorteners like Bit.ly and Ow.ly were quiet servants of the internet, not making too much noise and working as well as one would expect them to. This past month however there's been a bit of shake-up with the entry of Google and Facebook into this tiny (pun intended) space. Goo.gl and Fb.me were launched for internal use at each respective company, but it's easy to see how these shortening services might be extended to the general public, especially in the case of Google. How will sites like Bit.ly continue to operate in the face of this tough competition?

What is Bit.ly's value proposition? Right now it's the market leader mostly because it’s the default shortener for Twitter. But before Bit.ly the shortener of choice for Twitter was TinyURL. Twitter was able to change over to Bit.ly without too much disruption, so what’s to stop it from changing providers again? Why wouldn't Twitter create its own shortening service, something like a Twi.tr service?

It's really not too hard to start a URL shortening service. In fact, if I wanted to I could start up my own URL shortening service tomorrow without too much effort. (I would call it Shr.ty). But why would I, when there are services like Bit.ly and Goo.gl out there that will take care of all that for me?

Right now I use Bit.ly because it's the default Twitter shortener and because it seems to be the most 'trusted' service out there (whatever that means). But if Google were to offer its service for free to the public, I would probably use Goo.gl over Bit.ly. Why? Well, because I simply trust Google more than I do Bit.ly. I trust that Google has a small army behind it dedicated to security and data integrity, and I trust that Google has a massive database behind it that will allow it to verify and secure all of the URLs that go through its service. Bit.ly simply doesn't the firepower and data to keep up with Google in this area.

Google can probably also offer better reliability and real-time tracking capabilities than Bit.ly. Interestingly enough, Twitter switched over from TinyURL to Bit.ly earlier this year due to these exact issues. Twitter and Google have already partnered up for real-time search, so why wouldn’t they also partner together for URL shortening and link tracking services?

Bit.ly hasn’t remained dormant throughout all this. Bit.ly responded to Google's entry by releasing Bit.ly Pro and Bitly.tv, premium services built on top of its basic platform. Bit.ly Pro allows web publishers to create custom branded shortened links through its service. Sites like the New York Times (nyti.ms), Foursquare (4sq.com) and Meebo (mee.bo) have already started using this service. Bitly.tv is an analytical service that lets you see what videos are currently going viral on the web. Since a lot of the link sharing these days happens through Bit.ly links, Bitly.tv is a pretty accurate view of what is trending right now on the internet. Expect to see this service expand to cover news events and blogs.

Still, the advantage that Bit.ly would gain from these premium services seems fleeting. There’s no real barrier preventing a competitor like Google from entering and stealing away Bit.ly’s customer base. And if Bit.ly figures out how to monetize its service, they why wouldn't Twitter move into this space? Right now Twitter has no real reason to make its own URL shortening service since there's no real profits to be made through this, but if Bit.ly can create a working business model then that’s a whole different game. Why would Twitter give away the link data and profits generated on its platform to a 3rd party company like Bit.ly?

2009 was a good year for Bit.ly, but 2010 will be a rough year for the service. If Goo.gl is opened to the public or partners with Twitter we'll see Bit.ly squeezed out of the market. If Bit.ly figures out how to monetize its service then Twitter will bring this service in-house and leave Bit.ly out in the cold. Either way, it seems like a ‘lose-lose’ situation for Bit.ly.

Or who knows, maybe I'll go ahead and launch Shr.ty and take the URL shortening world by storm!