Microsoft's $1 Billion spend

Microsoft will reportedly spend $1 billion to launch Windows Phone later this year. That seems like a lot of money to launch a product but I guess Microsoft is showing that's its (finally) serious about mobile. Despite this large spend, it doesn't seem like analysts are too hopeful about Microsoft's chances in the mobile OS game. A mobile OS report out of Gartner has Microsoft's Windows Phone market share dwindling down to 3.9% by 2014, with Android and Symbian battling it out for the top spot. Interestingly enough they have the iPhone OS market share holding steady and not flat out dominating the industry over the next couple of years.

$1 billion seems like a lot of money to be throwing at a potentially losing product... but I guess Microsoft has to do it if they even want a fighting chance in the market. As Paul Thurrott from WinInfo Daily puts it "How much of your own money would you spend if you had to save your own life?" (Love that quote!)

Forecast: Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

OS	2009	2010	2011	2014
Symbian	80,876.3	107,662.4	141,278.6	264,351.8
Market Share (%)	46.9	40.1	34.2	30.2
Android	6,798.4	47,462.1	91,937.7	259,306.4
Market Share (%)	3.9	17.7	22.2	29.6
Research In Motion	34,346.8	46,922.9	62,198.2	102,579.5
Market Share (%)	19.9	17.5	15.0	11.7
iOS	24,889.8	41,461.8	70,740.0	130,393.0
Market Share (%)	14.4	15.4	17.1	14.9
Windows Phone	15,031.1	12,686.5	21,308.8	34,490.2
Market Share (%)	8.7	4.7	5.2	3.9
Other Operating Systems	10,431.9	12,588.1	26,017.3	84,452.9
Market Share (%)	6.1	4.7	6.3	9.6
Total Market	172,374.3	268,783.7	413,480.5	875,573.8

Source: Gartner (August 2010)

Windows Phone 7: Better late than never?

From everything I've read so far, it sounds like Microsoft has done a great job with the upcoming Windows Phone 7 platform. A complete reboot from the Windows Mobile series, the Windows Phone platform has rich system features and technical specs that rival iPhone and Android devices. Microsoft has even done a good job of building up excitement in the ever important app developer community. If Microsoft released this platform today it would give Apple and Google a good run for their money in the smartphone market.

Too bad we won't see Windows Phone 7 available on devices until much later in the year. Apple and Google aren't going to stand still until then with their own products. This year several new Android devices will roll out to the market and Google is finally starting to take steps to address its Android fragmentation issue. Apple is set to release a new iPhone model and OS this year (and possibly even on a new network, Verizon). Add on top of all this the entry of the new mobile tablet PCs that could steal away market share from high-end smartphones. All of these new mobile products entering the market in 2010 will steal away Microsoft's thunder and dampen sales of its devices. The Windows Phone 7 platform looks really strong, but as Palm's WebOS system has shown us lately sometimes that's just not enough to gain traction in the marketplace.

Microsoft's Project Pink

Slowly but surely the buzz around Microsoft's mobile strategy has been building up these past couple of weeks. It started out small and unassuming, with little snippets here and there about Windows Mobile 6.5 and 7, but this week Microsoft's Project "Pink" is making a big splash.

For the past couple of months any article you read about Windows Mobile tended to be pretty down on Microsoft. I wrote a couple here and there but Colin Gibbs from GigaOm really went to town on Microsoft in his articles 'Microsoft + Mobile Consumers = FAIL' and 'Has the Window Closed for Windows Mobile'. The articles are a bit harsh on Microsoft, but Gibbs makes great points about Microsoft's shortcomings in the mobile consumer space.

A couple weeks ago I started hearing a bit more about Windows Mobile 7. A co-worker forwarded me this article from Windows IT Pro, 'Microsoft's plan to save Windows Mobile'. The article talks about Windows Mobile 6.5 and the fact that it was a rushed product that was not a true reflection of Microsoft's mobile vision. The next generation of Windows Mobile would uproot the archaic layers underneath 6.5 and would deliver a smoother experience to the user. I didn't read too much into the article at the time, as anyone who has played around with Windows Mobile 6.5 can tell you that Microsoft really needed to revamp its UI if it wants to keep up with the iPhones of today.

Then earlier this week we heard that Windows Mobile 7 would (finally) be unveiled at the Mobile World Congress in February. The big news was that this new version of WinMo would be a whole new platform, completely different than previous versions. In fact it wouldn't even be compatible with older version of the mobile OS. It would essentially be a copy of the Zune HD's kernel, and the UI would look and feel like a Zune HD interface. This got me thinking 'Alright, now we're getting somewhere with this.' It seemed that Microsoft had finally heard the cry of its (small) legion of Zune users who felt the device was ready for the big show. However, even with this news I felt that Microsoft would still have to integrate into the phone hardware if it wanted to have a real chance in the mobile market. WinMo7 would get Microsoft part of the way there, but it would still need to take one more big step after that.

Well, now AllThingsD is reporting that Project "Pink" (aka the Zune Phone) is back in play. Not only will Microsoft unveil WinMo7 (or just 'Seven' as it may be known) at the MWC, but it may also debut a Zune-like phone at the event. The device is rumored to be a combination phone, Zune player, and XBox mobile gaming device. It is Microsoft's direct response to the iPhone and Nexus One. The phone may not be in production until 2011 though, which still leaves a lot of time for Apple and Google to make further advances against Microsoft.

We'll see if Project "Pink" can turn around Microsoft's mobile fortunes. I personally have a bit of a soft spot for Windows Mobile, since my first smartphone was an HTC Wizard loaded with Windows Mobile 6. Looking back at it now and comparing it against my iPhone, the thing was a slow clunky beast, but I loved it. It's kind of like your first car... sure it may have been a bucket of bolts but you'll never forget how it felt the first time you fired it up and took it out for a spin. Microsoft still has a long way to go in the mobile market but I'll continue to quietly root for WinMo and wait for the Zune phone to come out.

Augmented Reality on Michigan Ave.

This weekend I went Christmas shopping on Michigan Ave. and I decided to try out a couple iPhone augmented reality apps during my trip. The Magnificent Mile is a high traffic shopping area with a good mix of shops, restaurants and entertainment venues. With all of these different points around me I'd have access to a lot of data to play with as I walked around the area.

Augmented Reality Apps

Augmented reality on smartphones is essentially taking your phone's camera feed and overlaying graphical information on top of it. Most of the apps I list out below deal with your location. That means these apps use GPS to find your location, then take your camera feed and the digital compass capabilities and figure out where to lay out the data on the screen. It's pretty interesting stuff.

I had several different types of augmented reality apps on my iPhone. I had some venue review apps, like Yelp and Urbanspoon. I also had Wikitude, which overlays Wikipedia information on top of geotagged points of interest. Similar to Wikitude, I had Layar's augmented reality browser, which hooks into Wikipedia data. Layar also has a plug-in for showing tweets nearby. I also wanted to check out some of Google's Favorite Places so I downloaded NeoReader's app for scanning QR codes.

I started up north by the Water Tower Place. Right off the bat I realized that there would be no subtle way for me to use augmented reality with my phone. You have to point your device at the 'horizon'... which actually means a little bit higher than eye level. So essentially I was walking around with my phone held at arm's length in front of me. As you move the phone around from one direction to the next the data on the screen changes, so you have to keep an eye out on the display the whole time.

I started out with the review based apps. Yelp has a feature called Monocle that uses AR to display quick restaurant reviews around you. Urbanspoon has a similar feature. These apps worked pretty well, I noted that they were fairly accurate in direction and distance. One bad thing was that the number of data points on the screen was a bit much at times. You can set filters to limit the types of restaurants and places that get displayed, but in a densely populated area the AR items can quickly overtake your whole screen.

The Wikipedia based apps were a bit of bust. Both Wikitude and Layar's Wikipedia plug-in failed to show any real data around me, even though I was near actual points of interest like the Museum of Contemporary Art, Water Tower Place, or the John Hancock Center. The best these apps could show me was information for 'nearby' locations like Millenium Park to the south and Lincoln Park to north, which actually weren't that close to me at all.

Google's Favorite Places was also a bust. I was under the impression that the Favorite Places program had rolled out in Chicago and I would be able to find QR codes on windows of certain venues around the city. I had a list of places around Michigan Ave. but every one I checked out didn't actually have a decal sticker on the window. That was a bit disappointing.

The most interesting tool of all of them was definitely Layar's Twitter plug-in, Tweeps Around. With this app I could see tweets around me and find some pretty interesting tidbits of data. The problem was... most of these tweets weren't relevant to the location! I only saw one or two tweets about people actually shopping on Michigan Ave., the rest were just random bites of nonsense. The tweet that got me the most excited was one I saw near the Apple Store. Someone tweeted that they had just dropped off their computer at the store. Not too much there in that actual tweet but it shows a glimpse of the potential behind people geotagging relevant tweets around the city. Imagine being able to take the 'pulse' of the area based on tweets around you. Say for example you're on Michigan Ave. shopping, and you're thinking of going to the Apple Store at some point. If you see that there are a lot of tweets coming from the store that the place is "packed" you can plan accordingly, either by giving yourself extra time to shop there or skipping it altogether.

Overall Experience

Overall, 'augmented reality' itself didn't add too much value for me. There was a bit of a 'wow' factor at first, but that novelty quickly faded. The review based apps would have worked just as well for me without the augmented reality factor. Same goes for Layar's Twitter app. One thing I did notice was that there was a lot of 'noise' in the data being presented to me. There was a lot of information available, but it was cluttered and at times irrelevant. My small iPhone screen was quickly overwhelmed by labels and data that didn't really enhance my experience.

We're bound to see a huge growth in location based services as more data is geotagged on the internet. The key to all these services will be to figure out how best to filter all this data and present it to the user. Sure, 'augmented reality' is a cool way to present data, but I would much rather have a service that actually offers highly relevant and useful information to me and my current location.

iPhone, Google Phone, Zune Phone?

With the upcoming release of Google’s Nexus One we’re seeing a big shift in the smartphone industry. The new direction in mobile is in integrating the hardware and software behind the device and delivering a ‘complete’ and ‘pure’ experience to consumers. Apple obviously started this out with the wildly successful iPhone and now Google is following suit with the Nexus One. Let’s not forget about Nokia’s Maemo platform and Samsung’s upcoming Bada operating system. But what about Microsoft? Where do Microsoft and its Windows Mobile platform fit in this increasingly competitive arena?

Microsoft has certainly fallen behind the curve in the mobile world. There’s no buzz around its mobile platform right now and sales of Windows Mobile devices have been relatively low compared to its competitors. Some analysts are calling for Microsoft to get out of the phone business entirely. It seems unlikely that Microsoft will exit this area given the importance of mobile computing, but it definitely needs to shift its strategy if it hopes to compete for market share. I think that if Microsoft hopes to remain a player in the mobile world it will need to cross the threshold into smartphone hardware and release its own fully branded Windows phone.

Microsoft is no stranger to stepping into the hardware game. Microsoft successfully entered the video game market in 2001 with the introduction of the Xbox console, challenging Sony and Nintendo for superiority in the home gaming market. Microsoft also entered the portable media player market in 2006 with the Zune player to challenge Apple’s line of iPods. The Zune player itself is a sleek device that rivals the iPod in functionality and ease of use, but it never really caught on with consumers. Although it has not sold well in the market, analysts predict that Microsoft may enhance the Zune device with phone capabilities and enter the smartphone space with it.

Over the past year, there have been murmurs on the internet about the ‘Zune Phone’, but so far nothing concrete has materialized and Microsoft has not confirmed any of these rumors. The release of the Nexus One will certainly increase this chatter. It’s also going to inadvertently shine a bright light on Microsoft and call into question its current mobile strategy. Right now it appears that Microsoft is focusing much of its attention on the next version of its mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 7, scheduled for a 2010 launch. But will this be enough for Microsoft to regain its lost market share? Probably not.

If Microsoft hopes to once again become a leader in mobile computing it will need to follow the lead of its rivals. Windows Mobile 7 will not be enough. Microsoft needs to move beyond software and integrate into hardware for smartphones. I think we will see a Zune Phone released by the end of 2010. If Microsoft waits much longer than that it could find itself completely out of the mobile revolution.

How much will the Google Phone cost?

The Google Phone, aka Nexus One, has only been out (unofficially) for one day and already it's causing a frenzy on the internet. Over on Mashable Jennifer Van Grove has already listed out a comparative analysis between the Nexus One and the iPhone, based on the limited information that's been released to the public.

One of the big unknowns right now revolves around the price of the Nexus One. Google is selling the phone online and unlocked. This means that the Nexus One can be used on any GSM carrier. This also means that there won't be any carrier directly subsidizing the device, which could make the Nexus One prohibitively expensive. The iPhone retails for $199-$299, but this price is heavily subsidized by AT&T, which then makes up the cost over the lifetime of the service contract. The question on a lot of people's minds right now is whether or not Google can subsidize the Nexus One down to this level.

I expect to see the Nexus One retail for $199-$299, comparable to the iPhone. Google will use the same approach it’s taking with Android and the Chrome OS; subsidize the ancillary product heavily with the end goal of generating more revenue through Google's core product: AdSense.

This all goes back to Google's Revenue Equation. Google's main strategy is to get consumers on the web and to increasingly keep our lives wired. As long as we're using the web, Google is making money, thanks to its omnipresent AdSense program.

The Nexus One is the latest product of this basic strategy, and it stands to reason that Google will subsidize the device enough to make it comparable in price to the iPhone. If the Nexus One is released unlocked and at a low enough price then there won't be any reason for anyone NOT to have a smartphone device and be connected to the web at all times.

The Google Phone is coming

Big Google news this weekend: the Google Phone is coming! This highly anticipated move takes Google's Android mobile phone platform to the next level and could be a big game changer in the mobile landscape.

Last month I talked about Google's current problems with Android; brand appeal, simplicity and applications. All of these issues stemmed from Google's decentralized approach to the mobile market. Google gave away the Android OS to any manufacturer who wanted to use it and as a result the market was flooded with many different Android devices that each worked a bit differently than the rest. The fragmentation of the Android market was causing headaches for both consumers and app developers alike.

The solution itself seemed simple enough, although it would be hard to implement. Google would have to regain control of its mobile platform and standardize the consumer experience on Android. Google would have to somehow rein in all of the Android devices running in the wild and establish a unified platform for consumers.

The Google Phone looks like it will do all that. By rolling out its own phone, Google will be able to control every aspect of the device, from hardware to software, and deliver a complete 'Google' experience. The issue of brand appeal and simplicity go away. If a consumer wants an Android phone, the choice is clear; get the latest Google Phone. The issue of application compatibility goes away too. Google will control the OS on its phone and can push out updates and patches as it deems fit.

But what about Droid and the other Android devices out in the wild? Will Google continue to support these devices? They'll probably still be supported but we're likely to see the number of non-Google Android devices go down. The Google Phone may not be immediately available on all carriers, so there may still be a couple new Android devices released on different networks. Expect to see Google exert a tighter control on these devices as it looks to enforce the Android standard.

Now that Google is moving away from a 'Windows Mobile' strategy and moving closer towards an 'iPhone' strategy, how will Microsoft and Apple react?

Will Microsoft enter the phone manufacturer market? There have been murmurs of a Zune Phone but nothing concrete yet. Windows Mobile is falling further and further behind the curve; what can Microsoft do at this point to regain market share?

What will be the impact next year when the AT&T and iPhone exclusivity deal ends? Verizon is rumored to be the next major American carrier to roll out the iPhone. Can T-Mobile be too far behind? You can already unlock an iPhone and run it on T-Mobile's GSM network. Can Apple nip the Google Phone in the bud by making the iPhone more widely available to consumers?

Finally, don't forget about the impact of apps. As of November, the App Store has 100,000 apps available to the Android Market's 15,000. The Windows Marketplace has 376. Unless the Google Phone completely blows away the iPhone in terms of hardware superiority, the battle will still come down to apps. Google has a long way to go before it can match Apple for app numbers. The Google Phone will cause a spike in the number of apps on the Android Market, but will it be enough to pass up the App Store?

Android's Problems: Brand appeal, simplicity and applications

There's a lot of anti-Android chatter right now all over the web, stemming from the Android fragmentation problem I've mentioned a couple of times. Mike Elgan, from Datamation, is the latest analyst to call for Android's failure. Elgan writes "In today's [smartphone] market ... only three things count: brand appeal, simplicity and applications." In all three of these the iPhone leads the market. It has the "top brand, easiest-to-use phone and the most and best applications" available. It's not hard to see why the iPhone is dominating the smartphone industry. Any real challenger would have to tackle the iPhone on all three fronts:

This is the problem competitors face with creating the elusive "iPhone killer." In order to beat the iPhone, a cell phone would have to at minimum equal the iPhone in two of these measures, and surpass it in the third. In other words, an iPhone Killer would have to, say, be associated with as good a brand as the Apple and iPhone brands, be every bit as simple to use as the iPhone, and have more applications.

If we take a look at the barriers that Google faces on all three fronts, they each boil down to one thing: Google's decentralized strategy with the Android platform.

Google has a Brand problem because it allows for any phone manufacturer to rebrand the Android platform. You have the Motorola Droid, the HTC Magic and the Samsung Galaxy, to name a few. By next year there will be many more phone with many different names all using Android in different ways.

Google's Simplicity problem stems from the same source as its Brand problem. Google provides the Android platform for any phone manufacturer to use. Again, you have the Motorola Droid, the HTC Magic and the Samsung Galaxy, to name a few. If you walk into a store you may get overwhelmed with all of the different options and complex features available. Apple doesn't have this problem. Apple has the iPhone. You walk into a store, you see the latest iPhone, and you get it. Quick and simple.

Finally, Google's App problem is one I've talked about in my "Fragmentation of the Android market" posts. With all of the different versions of Android platforms out there, applications built for the Android may not be guaranteed to work across all Android phones. This is problematic for both consumers and developers.

It's already difficult, expensive and time consuming to develop on the Android platform. As a result, we can expect three bad outcomes: First, consumers will face uncertainty and confusion about which apps can successfully run on what devices. Second, the complexity, time and hassle of coping with multiple OS versions and many hardware variations provide a disincentive for many would-be developers to stick with it. And finally, providing real compatibility requires extra code, which could affect app performance.

Overall it sounds like the tech market is bearish on Android right now, which is too bad because it's a solid open platform that could bring real innovation to the smartphone market and provide an alternative to Apple's iPhone. Google's current Android strategy is working well in gaining market share right now, but at some point it will need to evolve if it hopes to be sustainable in the industry. I'll repost my recommendation from my 11/17 post: My recommendation: standardize the Android platform and enforce that standard. Once Google has gained a large enough foothold in the mobile market, it can command better control over the usage of Android with phone manufacturers. It can limit the number of OS versions, force software upgrades, set hardware standards, and standardize the user interface. All this will help to enhance the app experience for both users and developers on the Android platform.

Fragmentation of the Android market: Part 2

Yesterday I talked about the fragmentation of the Android market from a consumer's perspective. All the different Android versions on the market could potentially confuse consumers and stop them from making an Android phone purchase. Today I wanted to take a look at the fragmentation issue from an app developer's perspective.

Wired magazine has an article this week about Android's rapid growth and rising developer concerns. Android is now available on at least 12 phones and is scheduled to be released on many more over the next year. But this isn't necessarily good news for Android developers.

A slew of problems have made managing Android apps a “nightmare,” [developers] say, including three versions of the OS (Android 1.5, 1.6 and 2.0), custom firmware on many phones, and hardware differences between different models.

For users, it means apps in the store could be buggy, might not work well depending on their handsets, and could deliver a frustrating experience. Unaware of the increasing back-end complexity, they would then be more likely to leave bad reviews for those apps — a potentially lethal blow for small businesses, say developers.

It looks like the flexibility that Google has given to phone manufacturers with Android has created many different variations of its mobile platform. These variations may be small enough to go unnoticed by an average consumer, but they're large enough that they can cause a developer major headaches. Instead of working on new features and apps, developers find themselves busy debugging their existing apps across different Android phones.

This problem will only get worse as more and more different Android phones are released into the marketplace. iPhone developers don't have this problem since Apple tightly controls the iPhone platform and the operating system version. “Apple maintains an iron grip on what they do and there’s an advantage to that,” says Kelly Schrock, app developer. “IPhone developers don’t have to worry about fragmentation and creating apps for the iPhone is much easier.”

App developers are critical to the complementary network around a mobile platform. Where would the iPhone be without the developers that created the 100,000+ apps in the App Store? No matter how small or trivial, apps play a major role in the mobile world. If a slowdown in developer productivity leads to less new app releases on the Android platform, Google could very well see user share slip away as consumers switch to a platform with a better 'eco-system'.

At some point in the near term future, Google must address this problem. My recommendation: standardize the Android platform and enforce that standard. Once Google has gained a large enough foothold in the mobile market, it can command better control over the usage of Android with phone manufacturers. It can limit the number of OS versions, force software upgrades, set hardware standards, and standardize the user interface. All this will help to enhance the app experience for both users and developers on the Android platform.

Fragmentation of the Android market

Great article from Peter Burrows about the real hurdle Motorola's Droid faces: fragmentation of the Android market. Peter writes:

But Droid’s main competition isn’t really the iPhone: it’s fragmentation of the Android market. Clearly, Apple will have no problem keeping consumers focused on its device. The iPhone is the only smart phone Apple sells ... now consider Motorola’s challenge. Within weeks, consumers who go into a Verizon store will have many of different phones to choose from ... all these different interfaces is bound to confuse consumers.

Ed Zander, former CEO of Motorola, raises another good point. Zander "wonders if consumers will be put off by the complexity of the Android model. It’s bad enough with the iPhone, where Apple is responsible for the device and AT&T for the network. With Android, 'are you buying from Verizon, or Google or Motorola?'"

Google's distributed approach in the mobile market is giving it an early jump in market share, but it will have to be careful to keep a cohesive and unified "platform" as the different number of Android versions in the marketplace multiply.

If I have a Motorola Droid, my friend has an HTC myTouch (Magic), and our mutual friend has a Samsung Galaxy, our phones should all be able to talk to each other. And if not, who should we turn to for support?

Samsung throws its hat into the ring

It seems like all I talk about these days is mobile platforms. Android this, iPhone that, Windows Mobile here, Blackberry there, etc... But if you thought there were enough players in this market already, think again. Just this week Samsung announced the launch of its own 'open' mobile platform, Bada.

The whole plan by Samsung is to move away from using the Windows Mobile platform on its phones and instead shifting to open (free) platforms. Samsung will shift to using Android and Bada over the next couple of years as it looks to retain control over its phones.

I think moving to Android is a smart move for Samsung, but trying to launch a new platform probably won't work. Samsung may be the number 2 phone handset maker, but they have less than 5% of the smartphone market. That's simply not enough phones to gain any real traction among app developers. Their best bet would be to focus on handsets and leverage an existing open platform like Android to retain control over its phones and cut down on OS licensing costs.

The mobile platform market is already pretty fragmented right now, so I don't think adding more players at this point is going to do us any good. I'm not against competition, but in a game where market share is king, if you're not already in this space today you're probably too late.

Buzz Killer?

Hmmm, haven't heard too much about the Droid today. The "killer" phone was launched last Friday and was supposed to really shake up the mobile phone industry, but so far not too much noise being generated on the internet about it. Maybe it's being overshadowed by bigger news... such as the rumored Verizon-iPhone deal for 2010...

The Droid has arrived

Verizon's Droid is released to the public today! We haven't seen this much hype and buzz around a phone since the Palm Pre or the Blackberry Storm, and we all know how those worked out. Many have hailed the Droid as the next iPhone killer, but I prefer the term Windows Mobile killer. We'll see how much of the hype actually lives up to the real thing this week.

Gizmodo sums it up quite nicely:

It's this simple: If you don't buy an iPhone, buy a Droid.

It's the best phone on Verizon, and with Android 2.0, the second best smartphone you can buy, period. It's flawed, deeply in some ways. But it's the second best phone around, on the best network around.

Windows Mobile Killer

The Droid chatter continues on the web, and Verizon has announced that it's releasing it next week on November 6th. It will be interesting to see how the Droid actually performs in the market and how much user share it can steal away from the other mobile platforms.

Of course the Droid has been called the "iPhone Killer", but then again so has every other new phone that has come out recently. One thing I mentioned in an earlier post is how much different Google's strategy is to Apple's when it comes to their mobile platforms. While Apple has only released the iPhone on its handsets and on the AT&T network, Google has gone with a wider spread approach and essentially released Android into the wild. So maybe it's incorrect to compare the Android (Droid) to the iPhone, when we really should be comparing it to something else.

This Tech Crunch article ("The problem with iPhone Killers") does a great job of highlighting this point. The Droid isn't actually an iPhone Killer because first and foremost... it's not trying to be an iPhone Killer! Although it's competing in the same marketplace with the iPhone, in actuality Google's strategy and approach seems to be more targeted at being a "Windows Mobile Killer". Google is following the same mobile operation model as Microsoft; releasing its mobile operating system to the device makers and letting them control the physical hardware and distribution process. But the big difference for Google is that its OS is open source and free, while Microsoft charges licensing fees upwards of $25 per phone. The problem for Microsoft right now is that the Android platform is starting to gain real traction with the public and with the device makers. We're seeing more and more phones released with the Android platform, stealing away market share from Windows Mobile. Microsoft is responding with its upcoming Windows Mobile 7 platform, but for now it looks like it could be facing a lengthy uphill battle against Google.

So while most people will be eagerly anticipating the release of the latest iPhone Killer next week, I think I'll be keeping a closer eye on the real battle going on in the mobile world. At some future point, Android might be a true iPhone killer, but for now Google appears to be focusing on building up its mobile base by going after much weaker prey: Microsoft.

The Droid is coming

There's a lot of buzz going around right now about the new Droid phone. It's a Motorola smartphone running the Google Android platform on Verizon's network. The technical specs on the phone sound impressive, and the marketing campaign launching right now is positioning it as the iPhone killer everyone has been waiting for.

A couple posts ago I talked about Windows Mobile phones vs. the iPhone. I mentioned that even though the Windows HTC phone I was looking at might have better technical specs, it didn't have the same complementary 'network' (Apps Store, user base) that the iPhone has and as such was at a disadvantage. I didn't mention the Google Android platform at the time, but it is certainly emerging as a contender in the mobile operating system market.

The App Store has 85,000 applications available, and coming in (a somewhat distant) distant second is the Android Market at 10,200. These numbers are based on statistics pulled on Sept. 9th, 2009.

So how did Google get the Android platform to a place where it's ready to take on the current reigning champion? This CNET article ("Google Andoid: More than just a cheap date") seems to attribute most of Android's success to its open source nature. Google pretty much gives away the Android platform to any device manufacturer that might be interested in using it. This allows for anyone to experiment with the platform on their upcoming phones and helps lower the overall cost of manufacturing and licensing. The platform also draws in a heavy crowd of application developers looking for the flexibility of open source. Seems like a win-win in terms of adoption for Google. For now the focus appears to be on gaining widespread adoption and usage, and using that as a channel to deliver search and advertising services. Classic Google.

The new Droid phone appears to have the two key features needed to take on the iPhone. It has equal (if not better) technical specs. More importantly, it has a complementary network that is growing and will soon challenge the App Store in offerings. As the Android platform is released on more and more new phones we should see the Android user base steadily grow. We'll see if this is enough to take on the incumbent Apple.

New Smartphone

I’m in the market for a new phone right now. My current phone is a couple years old, and it’s constantly getting made fun of when I pull it out. It’s a T-Mobile MDA phone, which uses the HTC Wizard base model. I’m actually not quite sure if it’s a Wizard or a Hermes model, but that’s beside the point. The point is my phone is very old.

A month ago, I had it in my head that I was going to buy the latest HTC Windows phone, the HTC Touch Pro 2. It’s a pretty slick phone, it has all the latest touch screen features and is 3G enabled and has a slide out keyboard. It has been toted as the iPhone killer, but then again, so has almost every new smartphone that has come out recently. On my Facebook profile I posted a link to the phone and said “My next phone, aka the iPhone killer!” Well, that prompted a couple of people to comment on my post, most of them disagreeing with my statement and saying the iPhone was better. My brother actually made the best point of the bunch when he pointed out the biggest reason why the iPhone was better than the HTC phone had nothing to do with the phone technology itself, but with Apple’s App Store. Both phones are on par with each other, technology wise, but only the iPhone has the big content base at the App Store which gives the phone so much more added value.

Most consumers don’t care about the exact specs of each phone; which phone has the most memory or the slightly better camera. What they care about is all the “cool stuff” you can do with the phone. Right now Apple has a huge advantage over all other phones and applications stores because you can do more “cool stuff” with their phone than you can with other phones. That doesn’t mean their phone is better. It means that Apple got into the market early, built up a massive installed user base, and is now leveraging that user base to build out its complementary App Store service. Microsoft or Blackberry can roll out phones with better specs and functionality than the iPhone, but until they build out their user base and offer equally as cool applications on their own stores they won’t stand much of a chance against Apple. Which is a bit of a catch-22… how do you get more people to use and develop apps for your phone if the only way they’ll do that is if there is a bigger user and developer base for it?

In the ideal world (for consumers), we’d see a uniform platform used for all these phones and all the cool and innovative applications would work on any smartphone. That’s probably not going to happen anytime soon, but it would probably spawn a lot of growth in the mobile apps market. As it is right now, Apple has the dominant standard in the industry, but I can see Microsoft investing a lot of time and money trying to get their Windows standard spread out across the mobile landscape. It will be interesting to see the tactics they’ll use to achieve this…

Ok, back to my next phone purchase. I’m not sure what I’m going to do now. The HTC phone is nice, and would work well with my current carrier (T-Mobile), but it’s still priced really high even with a 2-year contract. I’m not sure if I’m ready to switch over my family plan to AT&T, so that limits some of my options. One thing I am considering is buying a separate phone line just for the iPhone, so I can play around with it over the next couple of months. I’m also *maybe* thinking about buying an iPhone unlocked and using it on the T-Mobile network. I’ve heard you can do this and pretty much everything works properly. I may go down this route just to go down the route… it sounds pretty cool and hackerish! :)